Rug replay
CAPYGLOW: the first 4 hours, minute by minute
Capy Glow on Solana, launched 23 October 2026 at 03:53 UK time. We recorded 4 hours of one-minute prices from 04:13. 5 warning signs lit up along the way, and 24 hours after launch it had collapsed.
- Spiking
- Cooling off
- Sliding
- Settling
- Quiet
- Warning sign
- Serious sign or the fall
- Other event
5 warning signs in this replay.
1x plays one minute of the coin's life every second. Keys: Space plays or pauses, J and L jump 10 minutes, and the arrow keys move the slider one minute.
Prices are our own one-minute records. Buys vs sells are counts of trades in the past 5 minutes, not dollars. Times are UK time. Where our live records had a gap, we used the coin's case file or DexScreener prices every 2 minutes; each event names its source.
Every event, with its time and source
- We first saw it on our live boardSource: lab.db event (first_seen), minute 1.
- Paid profile bought on DexScreener
DexScreener's own timestamp for the order.
Source: lab.db event (promo), minute 1. - Phase: Spiking
The price was at least 3x its lowest point of the past hour.
A paid boost, profile or ad was bought in the hour before.
Source: phase.db phase_log 3254, minute 1. - Paid profile bought while up 4.2x in an hour
Paid profile bought 1 minute ago on DexScreener.
The price is up 322% over the last hour (4.2x).
Market value $186k, liquidity $42.8k.
An hour later the price was 95% lower than when we logged this.
Our read: paid attention arriving after a 3x move gives the early holders a crowd to exit into.
Source: findings.db finding f933c33eccf9, minute 1. - First check: grade B, no red flags foundSource: outcomes.db first_check, minute 1.
- Our grade changed from B to ASource: lab.db event (grade), 1 change, minute 10.
- Lost its clean grade: A to D
It was graded A for 30 minutes before the drop to D.
What appeared: 3 wallets bought identical bags.
Price from going clean to the drop: +210%.
Market value at the drop: $561k.
Source: findings.db finding 6c0b946e8dea, minute 32. - Our grade changed from D to ASource: lab.db event (grade), 1 change, minute 51.
- Highest price in our minute bars, market value $804kSource: lab.db bar, computed, minute 52.
- Phase: Cooling off
The price was 20% or more below a high set in the past hour, after a run up.
A paid boost, profile or ad was bought in the hour before.
Source: phase.db phase_log 3518, minute 58. - Price fell below half its peak, 98% down
7 minutes after the peak.
Source: lab.db bar, computed, minute 59. - Liquidity fell 77% in 7 minutes, $140k to $32.3k
Liquidity went from $140k to $32.3k in 7 minutes.
The price moved -94% over the same time.
Market value is now $49k.
Source: findings.db finding f3bfc00f0b4f, minute 59. - Liquidity fell 87% in 8 minutes, $140k to $18k
Liquidity went from $140k to $18k in 8 minutes.
The price moved -98% over the same time.
Market value is now $17.1k.
Source: findings.db finding f4e929aa5f2c, minute 60. - 3 same-size wallets sold or moved about $151 in 10 minutes
3 top wallets each held between 5.82M and 5.86M tokens (about 0.6% of supply each).
3 of them sold or moved all or most of their bag between our checks 10 minutes apart, about $50 each at the current price.
Our read: same-size bags selling together is a common sign of one group exiting.
Source: findings.db finding 5131c40c4956, minute 61. - Our grade changed from A to BSource: lab.db event (grade), 1 change, minute 69.
- Phase: Quiet
Under $2,000 was traded in the past hour.
Source: phase.db phase_log 3858, minute 129. - 24 hours after launch: collapsed, 99.7% below the highest price we recorded
Collapsed: the price was under a tenth of its peak, or liquidity was under $1,000 outside the launchpad.
Source: outcomes.db outcomes.out24_status, after our minute bars end.
What the check showed before the fall
Our first check graded CAPYGLOW B at 04:13 UK time, 21 minutes after launch and found no red flags. A clean first check does not make a coin safe.
The price first fell below half its peak at 05:12, 7 minutes after its highest point in our records. Before that, 2 of the 5 warning signs in this replay had appeared:
- 04:13 Paid profile bought while up 4.2x in an hour
- 04:44 Lost its clean grade: A to D
3 more signs appeared after the fall began.
24 hours after launch: collapsed, 99.7% below the highest price we recorded.