Rug replay
GUST: the first 11 hours, minute by minute
on Solana, launched 23 October 2026 at 08:31 UK time. We recorded 11 hours of one-minute prices from 08:35. 4 warning signs lit up along the way, and 24 hours after launch it was still trading.
- Spiking
- Cooling off
- Sliding
- Settling
- Quiet
- Warning sign
- Serious sign or the fall
- Other event
4 warning signs in this replay.
1x plays one minute of the coin's life every second. Keys: Space plays or pauses, J and L jump 10 minutes, and the arrow keys move the slider one minute.
Prices are our own one-minute records. Buys vs sells are counts of trades in the past 5 minutes, not dollars. Times are UK time. Where our live records had a gap, we used the coin's case file or DexScreener prices every 2 minutes; each event names its source.
Every event, with its time and source
- We first saw it on our live boardSource: lab.db event (first_seen), minute 1.
- Paid profile bought on DexScreener
DexScreener's own timestamp for the order.
Source: lab.db event (promo), minute 1. - First check: grade D, 1 warning sign
3 wallets bought identical bags.
Source: outcomes.db first_check, minute 1. - Phase: Cooling off
The price was 20% or more below a high set in the past hour, after a run up.
A paid boost, profile or ad was bought in the hour before.
Source: phase.db phase_log 4577, minute 7. - Phase: Spiking
The price was at least 3x its lowest point of the past hour.
A paid boost, profile or ad was bought in the hour before.
Source: phase.db phase_log 4767, minute 38. - Paid profile bought while up 3.0x in an hour
Paid profile bought 38 minutes ago on DexScreener.
The price is up 203% over the last hour (3.0x).
Market value $129k, liquidity $30.5k.
An hour later the price was 17% lower than when we logged this.
Our read: paid attention arriving after a 3x move gives the early holders a crowd to exit into.
Source: findings.db finding 23d75afedc4f, minute 38. - Phase: Settling
No new low for 30 minutes, and the price range was narrowing.
Source: phase.db phase_log 4883, minute 74. - Phase: Cooling off
The price was 20% or more below a high set in the past hour, after a run up.
Source: phase.db phase_log 4896, minute 76. - Phase: Sliding
Each 20-minute low of the past hour was lower than the one before.
Source: phase.db phase_log 5098, minute 114. - Phase: Settling
No new low for 30 minutes, and the price range was narrowing.
Source: phase.db phase_log 5295, minute 155. - Phase: Cooling off
The price was 20% or more below a high set in the past hour, after a run up.
Source: phase.db phase_log 5551, minute 213. - Highest price in our minute bars, market value $480kSource: lab.db bar, computed, minute 270.
- Phase: Cooling off
The price was 20% or more below a high set in the past hour, after a run up.
Source: phase.db phase_log 5858, minute 282. - Phase: Settling
No new low for 30 minutes, and the price range was narrowing.
Source: phase.db phase_log 5951, minute 300. - Price fell below half its peak, 54% down
71 minutes after the peak.
Source: lab.db bar, computed, minute 341. - Phase: Sliding
Each 20-minute low of the past hour was lower than the one before.
Source: phase.db phase_log 6214, minute 357. - Phase: Cooling off
The price was 20% or more below a high set in the past hour, after a run up.
Source: phase.db phase_log 6402, minute 401. - Our grade changed from D to ASource: lab.db event (grade), 1 change, minute 404.
- Phase: Settling
No new low for 30 minutes, and the price range was narrowing.
Source: phase.db phase_log 6579, minute 424. - Lost its clean grade: A to D
It was graded A for 21 minutes before the drop to D.
What appeared: 3 wallets bought identical bags.
Price from going clean to the drop: +26%.
Market value at the drop: $165k.
Source: findings.db finding a2f91cd4e790, minute 425. - Our grade changed from D to BSource: lab.db event (grade), 1 change, minute 465.
- Phase: Cooling off
The price was 20% or more below a high set in the past hour, after a run up.
Source: phase.db phase_log 6840, minute 480. - Lost its clean grade: B to E
It was graded B for 40 minutes before the drop to E.
What appeared: 3 wallets bought identical bags.
Price from going clean to the drop: -5.8%.
Market value at the drop: $168k.
Source: findings.db finding 70610ce02392, minute 506. - Phase: Sliding
Each 20-minute low of the past hour was lower than the one before.
Source: phase.db phase_log 7002, minute 512. - 24 hours after launch: still trading, 87% below the highest price we recorded
Still trading: at least $5,000 traded in the past day, with $5,000 or more of liquidity or still on the launchpad.
Source: outcomes.db outcomes.out24_status, after our minute bars end.
What the check showed before the fall
Our first check graded GUST D at 08:35 UK time, 5 minutes after launch, with 1 warning sign:
The price first fell below half its peak at 14:16, 71 minutes after its highest point in our records. Before that, 2 of the 4 warning signs in this replay had appeared:
- 08:35 First check: grade D, 1 warning sign
- 09:13 Paid profile bought while up 3.0x in an hour
2 more signs appeared after the fall began.
24 hours after launch: still trading, 87% below the highest price we recorded. It is here as a counter-example.
Our read: warning signs raise the risk, they do not set a date. This coin carried them and was still trading a day later.