ARGUS: the first 4 hours, minute by minute

Prices are our own one-minute records. Buys vs sells are counts of trades in the past 5 minutes, not dollars. Times are UK time. Where our live records had a gap, we used the coin's case file or DexScreener prices every 2 minutes; each event names its source.

Every event, with its time and source

1. 00:26
   We first saw it on our live boardSource: lab.db event (first_seen), minute 0.
2. 00:26
   Paid profile bought on DexScreener

   DexScreener's own timestamp for the order.

   Source: lab.db event (promo), minute 0.
3. 00:26
   First check: grade C, 1 warning sign

   5 wallets bought identical bags.

   Source: outcomes.db first_check, minute 0.
4. 00:29
   Paid profile bought while up 3.3x in an hour

   Paid profile bought 4 minutes ago on DexScreener.

   The price is up 234% over the last hour (3.3x).

   Market value $18.4k, still on its launchpad bonding curve.

   An hour later the price was 7.5% lower than when we logged this.

   Our read: paid attention arriving after a 3x move gives the early holders a crowd to exit into.

   Source: findings.db finding ef97bfea6582, minute 4.
5. 00:29
   Phase: Spiking

   The price was at least 3x its lowest point of the past hour.

   A paid boost, profile or ad was bought in the hour before.

   Source: phase.db phase_log 45809, minute 4.
6. 00:35
   Left the launchpad for a full trading poolSource: lab.db event (graduated), minute 10.
7. 00:36
   Highest price in our minute bars, market value $45.4kSource: lab.db bar, computed, minute 10.
8. 00:36
   Our grade changed from C to ESource: lab.db event (grade), 1 change, minute 11.
9. 00:37
   Phase: Cooling off

   The price was 20% or more below a high set in the past hour, after a run up.

   A paid boost, profile or ad was bought in the hour before.

   Source: phase.db phase_log 45850, minute 12.
10. 00:38
    Price fell below half its peak, 70% down

    2 minutes after the peak.

    Source: lab.db bar, computed, minute 12.
11. 00:38
    Liquidity fell 50% in 2 minutes, $16.3k to $8.1k

    Liquidity went from $16.3k to $8.1k in 2 minutes.

    The price moved -70% over the same time.

    Market value is now $13.5k.

    Source: findings.db finding d63f4241ef94, minute 12.
12. 01:36
    Phase: Settling

    No new low for 30 minutes, and the price range was narrowing.

    Source: phase.db phase_log 46087, minute 70.
13. 01:43
    Phase: Cooling off

    The price was 20% or more below a high set in the past hour, after a run up.

    Source: phase.db phase_log 46121, minute 78.
14. 01:45
    Our grade changed 2 times in 1 minute, ending at E

    It moved between E and F as new checks came in, from 01:45 to 01:46.

    Source: lab.db event (grade), 2 changes, minute 80.
15. 01:46
    3 same-size wallets sold or moved about $128 in 10 minutes

    3 top wallets each held 13.90M tokens (about 1.5% of supply each).

    3 of them sold or moved all or most of their bag between our checks 10 minutes apart, about $43 each at the current price.

    Our read: same-size bags selling together is a common sign of one group exiting.

    Source: findings.db finding ed00a0e77452, minute 81.
16. 01:59
    Phase: Sliding

    Each 20-minute low of the past hour was lower than the one before.

    Source: phase.db phase_log 46199, minute 94.
17. 02:44
    Phase: Quiet

    Under $2,000 was traded in the past hour.

    Source: phase.db phase_log 46408, minute 139.
18. 30 Oct 00:38
    24 hours after launch: collapsed, 95% below the highest price we recorded

    Collapsed: the price was under a tenth of its peak, or liquidity was under $1,000 outside the launchpad.

    Source: outcomes.db outcomes.out24_status, after our minute bars end.

What the check showed before the fall