On the afternoon of 19 October our scanner logged the new Solana memecoins it could see. In five and a half hours (16:50 to 22:20 UK time) that came to 6,541 new coins, most of them minutes old. Two days later we checked every one of them again.
18 are still trading with real volume. That is fewer than 1 coin in 300.
Figures as of 19:12 UTC on 21 October 2026. The live survivors board keeps updating, so its numbers will differ.
What happened to them
| Where they are now | Coins | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Still standing (real volume and liquidity) | 18 | 0.3% |
| Less than $100 traded in the last 24 hours | 6,414 | 98.1% |
| Down 90% or more from the highest price we recorded, or liquidity gone | 493 | 7.5% |
The groups overlap: a coin can be both collapsed and silent. The headline is the second line. About 98 in every 100 new coins had, in effect, stopped existing within two days. Nobody was trading them.
"Still standing" means at least $5,000 traded in the last 24 hours, at least $5,000 of liquidity (or still on the launch curve), and not down 90% or more from the highest price we recorded. It is a low bar. It does not mean a coin is doing well.
The odds of a big win
Of the 6,541 coins, only 399 are priced above the level they were at when we first saw them. 14 are worth at least double. 3 are up tenfold or more.
That is 3 in 6,541, or about 1 in 2,180. If you bought a random new coin the moment it appeared, those were your odds of still holding a tenfold gain two days later. Every screenshot of a win like that has around 2,180 tickets behind it that didn't do that.
Did anything help?
A little, and it is not what most people chase.
| When we first saw the coin | Coins | Still standing |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap under $10,000 | 5,845 | 0 (0.0%) |
| Market cap $10,000 or more | 696 | 18 (2.6%) |
| Liquidity under $5,000 | 6,412 | 8 (0.1%) |
| Liquidity $5,000 or more | 129 | 10 (7.8%) |
| Still on the pump.fun bonding curve | 5,516 | 8 (0.1%) |
| Still on another launchpad's curve (Meteora or Bags) | 516 | 0 (0.0%) |
| Already graduated to a trading pool | 509 | 10 (2.0%) |
The earliest, cheapest coins are the ones people chase hardest, because they look like the biggest upside. They were also the ones that didn't last: not one of the 5,845 was still standing. Coins that already had some money in them when we found them did better, but "better" still means more than 90% of them were gone two days later.
Key point: Survival is not safety. Even in the best group, the large majority of coins were dead within two days, and a coin that has survived so far can still rug at any time.
What this does and does not show
- It shows survival, not profit. A coin can still be trading while everyone who bought it early is down 80%.
- It is one afternoon. Launch volumes and survival rates change week to week. The radar now records outcomes automatically, so we will repeat this with every day's coins.
- These coins were logged before our A to F grades existed. From 21 October every coin is graded when we first check it, so the next version of this story will show survival rates by grade. That is the real test of whether the grades work, and we will publish it whatever it says.
- "Highest price we recorded" is not the true peak. We priced these coins when we first saw them and again two days later, so a coin that spiked and crashed in between may look less bad here than it really was.
- We left out 79 established tokens. The scanner also picked up older tokens that had opened a new trading pair, or that were already worth over $10 million. They are not new launches, so they are not counted.
- We also left out 16 tokenised stocks, wrapped tokens and stablecoins. They are not memecoins.
How we measured it
Our scanner recorded each coin's price, market cap and liquidity from DexScreener at the moment it first appeared. On 21 October we fetched current data for every coin from the same source. Coins with no trading pair left at all were counted as having no liquidity. Nothing else was removed or edited. The full method is on our methodology page.
You can watch the same numbers update live on the survivors board, and see every coin we flag on the live board.